Yield curve there are many, such as government bonds, the benchmark yield curve, deposit yield curve, interest rate swaps and credit yield curve yield curve (credit curves) and so on. Benchmark yield curve and other securities on the market of reference, the securities must be consistent with liquidity, size, price, availability, velocity and other characteristics of the standard.

Yield curve is not static, at any time can happen fast changes. For example, the central bank officials in a few words can lead to higher inflation expectations, so that long-term bond prices have fallen faster than short-term bonds.

Under normal circumstances, the yield curve rising from left to right, because the longer term rate of return would be higher to reflect the investment risks and increase with the lengthening period of the case. Of such yield curve, if it increases in long-term yields higher than short-term rate of return, yield curve becomes steeper.

Inversion of the yield curve is a decline from left to right, reflecting the short-term rate of return higher than the long-term rate of return anomalies. This may be because investors expect the inflation rate to decline in the long run, or the supply of bonds will be substantially reduced, both the expected rate of return will be down.
    
    On interest rates, financial commentators often said that the interest rate path, or down, as if every move in interest rates are the same. In fact, if a different year bonds, the interest rate trend will be different, a long period of interest rate and short term interest rate movements can be split. The most important thing is the overall yield curve shape and curve on the economy or market trends in the future inspiration.

Would like to find out interest rates from the yield curve traces of the investors and companies are closely observe the shape of the curve. Yield curve is based, is that you buy in the near future, medium and long-term treasury bonds, the proceeds after the rate of return. Curves allows you to get back in accordance with holders of bonds until the principal amount of the year, to compare bond yields.

The shape of yield curve is based on the straight shaft connected to a different point of Treasury bond yields as well as in the horizontal axis of the bond formed-year point. Now you can see above a bit steep yield curve, in which year bonds yield more than three-month short-term treasury bonds is nearly. The difference between these two types of bonds are usually about, if the difference between the percentage of higher than this, that said the economy is expected to improve in the future.

Steep yield curve in general appeared in pace with the economic recession of the early stage of economic expansion. At this point, economic stagnation and short-term interest rates have been suppressed, but the One once to re-establish the growth of economic activity the demand for capital, and the fear of inflation, interest rates generally began to rise.

Traditionally, the inverted curve, said the economy would soon slow down. Financial institutions such as banks typically borrow short-term interest rates and will be a long-term lending money. Generally speaking, when the long-term rates higher than short-term interest rates and relatively high between the two, in this case, the bank’s loans are usually low. In general, the lower the amount of corporate lending will lead to credit crunch, business is slow, and economic decline.

This is a typical view. The latest case is different, and perhaps more complex than ever. Recent decline in U.S. Treasury long-term bonds issued, and in the past few years, when the first time in budget surpluses over the years in Washington to begin paying some of the long-term bonds have not been paid.

Reduce the long-term bond issuance prompted investors to buy longer-term bonds, and thus raised the long-term bond prices and lowered its rate of return, the question arose inverted curve. Bond prices and yields the opposite direction. However, the year the Federal Reserve interest rate cut carried out radical measures in the case of short-term rates down, return to the traditional increase in yield curve shape.

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The foreign exchange market 24 hours of continuous operation, up or Change, does not stand still. Its trend as the day and night on earth conversion, again and again. Correspondingly, we can be divided into exchange-rate movements of the stock market bottomed, up, building the head and fell four stages. These patterns we can observe the exchange rate charts, such as commonly used to determine the K-line graph.

1, bottomed stage. Exchange rate bottomed shape generally have triple bottom, head and shoulders bottom, double bottom (W end) and the semicircle at the end (bottom), etc.. The bottom of the horizontal area of the larger building, representing the cumulative kinetic energy increases more the greater the rate of rise. At this stage, should be carried out buy low and sell high range operations, such as conservative, the stage may be waived by the profitability of the opportunity and fighting the next phase.

2, up stage. When the exchange rate at the bottom of the neckline break early on the trend indicates an increase in the beginning, and the increase in height is usually at the bottom of the vertical height of the early. This stage as an energetic young man, desperate to live forward setting and ran away, Tiaode Gao, although there is no difficulty as long as the stamina, but a break will be able to set off again, just like the main stage of the rising Quotes, magnitude large and fast, although the continued upward pressure on long But when a little correction as long as the order will be able to immediately re-launch a new round of upside. The initial period of this phase should be to our brave chase the best time to buy. Rising phase is also our main source of profitability.

Third, build the first phase. Is the rise in the late stage. Quotes trend upward again this time attempting to push up but the effort has been exhausted long before the wave can not break through the high points, the final break through the neckline down to the completion of the head and into the fall phase. At this stage, early and long-term pay should be shot, short-term to try to do Kuaijinkuaichu range operations.

4, down stage. And a rising phase as simple as that, but in the opposite direction. At this stage to lose morale and inability to support the exchange rate fell rapidly until the rate of kinetic energy disappears into the bottomed stage. Decline phase should be strong sell into the rapid stop of the stop-loss, or costly.

   Attention to the root zone “new” K-Line

   Like many people who do not accept the chart, I also had a lot of technology after the failure of useless things, because technology, recognized the need for a foundation, out of two-way to judge will result in the loss part of the time, tend to become a major Quotes little opportunity, if the miscarriage of justice from taking even one several times, losses are inevitable. To this end, I would push back, to revert to the most simple graph K-line and constitute the K-line on each of the transaction amount.

   Most of the transaction and K lines are neutral, there is no interpretation of the meaning, and only decided to change direction and brewing some of it deserved attention. Therefore, we need a concept to filter, it is the word “new”: new directions, new prices, new range, the new rates, new rhythms, new volume, and so everything’s new.

   When the word “new” happens, I will be highly sensitive and concerned about the root zone is very concerned about this “new” K-lines generated by high and low points, which represent the key unit of time within the two poles: one strong and weak forces brewing process of the limit of where the long-short, if immediate deduction in accordance with relevant logic, and the pole to break, then the breakthrough point, or appearance shall Admission signals; while the other pole will automatically become the correct position, as the wrong remedy.

   Identify the interest-bearing line

   The composition of all the technical graphics are the deduction comes from the K-line, and we removed the key to noise and find the attitude of conversion and the strength of money in the process of brewing Flanagan K-line core. This approach lies at the core to simplify, recognizing that it will be a holographic line, implies decide the future of some important information graphics and logical values, through its understanding and explained the logic, we can find the earliest opportunity, and will error limited to a range.

   While we stress the simplification of requirements in order to chart the basic unit of center, but not to weaken the major graphic to explain, just want to zoom in and attention to the basic unit of information contained in the.

   The above is my basic understanding that the analysis of the chart. Be pointed out that the “new” is not equivalent to “change” or “different”, which from an operational point of view of technical analysis required the use of persons, not to Italy, not to will, to see around corners, but it should not be attempted by the differences involved, to avoid falling into the trap of change.

Volatility and unpredictability of the most fundamental characteristics of the market, which is the basis of market exists, but also the causes of the risk of the transaction, which is an immutable characteristic. Transaction never certainty, all the analysis and forecast is only a possibility, according to the transactions carried out such a possibility is naturally uncertain, uncertain act must have to have measures to control the expansion of its risk, stop-loss Thus came into being.

Stop-loss of human naturally occurring in the transaction process, not intentionally produced for investors to protect their own kind

Many investors are accustomed to watching people do a single real-time plan to do, real-time plan to take no action, they jumped into the market, it was also planned according to pre-purchase price immediately after the figure Xun continued falling, cut rush orders, which are do not understand the performance characteristics of real-time map. A major role in real-time graph, only price is an accurate record of its trend direction, at any time to change. Under normal circumstances, real-time map of the fluctuations are relatively small.

Foreign exchange price changes, is essentially undulating, rising in the big waves, there will be many mistakes down the small wave parameters during. Therefore, the hours of the basic plan was rally, the 5-minute chart price may fall, while the real figure may be within 5 minutes Change many times, therefore, experienced investors who will not let themselves be carried away immediately Map . Some investors who planned an order, but also consciously looking to avoid an immediate plan to avoid interference with emotion.

In real-time map for detailed study, can be found in addition to its exact characteristics of volatility, there are also sensitive features. For example, when the German mark exchange rate is stronger than sterling cross trading, investors hold the hands of pounds to buy list, when the pound rise in price resistance point, investors may refer to marks real-time map, because it marks a strong, and its real-time map may be the first to break through the resistance point, then you having to pay £ unwinding in a hurry.

In addition, when according to plan into a single, but the price did not identify the resistance point, there dozens of small losses, it can closely observe the real-time maps, a new breakthrough in price if any, that wish to consider the loss of a single cut.

Sensitive and changeable than the real-time map, the map looked cool 5 minutes more, 5-minute graph is characterized by resistance point, anchor of the price sensitive, suitable for grasping associate into a single, out of a single time.

Strictly speaking, the technical analysis of the many methods used in the 5 minutes chart, its reliability should be playing a big discount, because the characteristics of 5-minute figure is only the resistance point, strong point responsive, and its ups and downs of change are usually not the meaning of the direction of the trend. 5 minutes alone work out the resistance point, intensity is usually not much.

Most investors are accustomed to doing short-term, especially the day before the close on the liquidation of short-term operation. For such investors, they do the best single tool is not real-time map, 5-minute chart, but the 15-minute maps, hours Fig.

Inevitable errors and loss of produce, do not blame yourself, it is important from learning the lessons and avoid repeating the same mistakes, the sooner you learn to accept loss, learning the lessons, the faster the days of the advent of profits. In addition, we must learn to control their emotions and not to make money and pride, they do not due to loss of an optimist. Transactions, the less personal feelings, the easier you can see the market situation and make the right decisions. A calm state of mind to face the gain or loss, to understand the transaction were not learning from the profits, but from the loss of growth, when a loss to understand the reasons for each, that means you Youxiang profit path step further, because you have to find the right direction.

● own worst enemy

Trader’s biggest enemy is themselves – greed, haste, uncontrolled emotions, there is no preparedness heart, excessive self, and so it is easy to make you ignore the market trends which led to the wrong trading decisions. Not just for a long time did not approach trading transactions are carried out, or boredom, there are no certain standard provisions of the necessary number of a particular volume of transactions during the period.

● Record the factors that determine transaction

Detailed record of daily transactions, factors that determine whether this was what the event message, or other reasons for trading decisions you do, do the transaction and then to analyze and record the bottom-line results. If it is a profitable trading results, that your analysis is correct, when the similar or the same factors again, your records of transactions made will help you make the right trading decisions quickly; of course, a loss of transaction records allows you to avoid repeating the same mistakes. You can not experience all of all transactions recorded in the mind, so this record will help improve your trading skills and find out what is wrong.

● Homeopathy operation, not to contrarian OK

To remember the old General Market: loss of part of the termination as soon as possible, profits will hold long positions on the long put. Another important code is not to let the losses occurred in the original site has been profitable, the sudden reversal of the face of market trends, instead of liquidation is not the case at no profit to make a profit position that had been turned into a loss situation.

● Do not be anxious state of mind to turn around and deal

The face of loss-making situation, remember not to rush to the opening of a new position an attempt to reverse emancipation, which often only make the situation become worse. Only when you think the original forecast and decide on a totally wrong circumstances, to settle a loss position as soon as possible to open a reverse of the new positions. Do not guess with the changes in the market to play the game, missed trading opportunities, better than a loss to produce a good.

● Each is a separate transaction

Never put two or more transactions linked! Remember that each transaction is a separate transaction.

For example, put in the 121.00 yen after 120.50 stop. 3 days later, after analysis, that the dollar will rise to buy U.S. dollars at current prices you can put the yen, but the price is 120.80, then, do not think that the last transaction in the 120.50 stop-loss, and now want to put it is not worth the 120.80 that must and so on down to the last stop-loss below 120.50 before the stock market. Such a link has not helped, and easy to miss the boat! As long as analysis, determine the transaction the market, stop loss, profit price, the market can be decisive.

  2, people. The foreign exchange market in the meaning of those who should have been three: that his opponents, referees. Foreign exchange market is a no enemies and no friends in the battlefield, when you put, your opponent is to call people.

  3, the price. Fundamentals with the law of value to explain the price fluctuations; technology were established, such as gold division, percentages, the trend line, and so a variety of models to try to reveal the price movement patterns. Prices have absolute and relative distinction. Determine your gain or loss is the relative prices. A reference to the price, you can not avoid time.

  4, the relationship between chance and necessity, determines the fuzzy characteristics of the foreign exchange market. Accordingly, our best approach is to accurately deal with problems and ambiguous in application.

  5, balance everywhere, you should be thinking of carrying out a balanced solution to the problem has always been on.

  6, with the general view of energy characteristics of the foreign exchange market will lead to a lot of problems solved.

  7, the foreign exchange market in the repetitive, most often reflected in the cyclical characteristics; Exchange continuity of city, most often reflected in the trend characteristics. Cyclical, the trend is undoubtedly there, and seems to find the truth from us recently. Period of time, the trend of space, perhaps with the with the time and space, you can keep pace with the concept of energy, we will be find the answer.

  8, we do not need to take into account the foreign exchange market in the study than people, time, price, energy, smaller yuan. Their own concept of universality, comprehensiveness indisputable geography should become the basic elements of the foreign exchange market.

  9, time. Five kinds of people can at least mention the time understanding: the nature of life gone forever felt the time: Newton’s absolute time of classical mechanics: the theory of relativity in the relative time; “assuming nothing else changed, then things back again to its original state, “the cycle of time; statistical mechanics an infinite increase in the entropy, with the direction of the arrow of time. One tan as long as human thought must be used in time; time describing things, changes in the human mode of thinking. Special emphasis on human beings so much time, but rather that human beings are more concerned about things at any given time changes. Things are obviously changing repeating itself should contain the time factor. Want to solve the problem, we must understand the most profound time in the role of development and changes of things. Who can say that the stock market was established in line with the movement time model, who can be the same as Gann once and for all solve the problem.

  10, the energy. Only the energy in terms of the universality of the talent and time and space compared to. All changes are in the world can be summed up as being in the energy space and time changes. Foreign exchange market, the smallest unit of energy should be in contact with the time and space. Energy may be the foreign exchange market we open the door of a key.

  11, I said that the trend is not the law, because as the continuation of the trend, the probability of continuation of this trend will become increasingly smaller, the trend is not whether it is useful and trends in the law are two different things, in the currency in which people attach importance to the reason why the trend because it is very useful, chances of winning a larger share of the two is certainly wrong in most people, I want to correct a few people, while the trend is not told me.

  12, if an ant crawling on a tightrope do not know at the end, there will always fall to the day, and when the rope at the end, so I think the trend is not the law!

We speculate that they also have a defensive foreign exchange process, before you make a single before doing a single, as well as have a lot of attention to every step of the unwinding point, to conclude my few years ago to do a single one, is usually arbitrary me to do a single Kuidiao all of the profits, it did put an end to arbitrary single, rational and address every single one will be my future operating principles.

Foreign Exchange Quotes variables as large, over-emphasis on discipline will result in rigid, I do not exclude a single inspiration, but inspiration for operation limited to short-term transactions, such as do middle and long-level transactions, transactions of non-compliance is not enough, here I am Some transactions disciplinary documents for reference and discussion.

Do single-ago:

1, is consistent and current trends;

2, do you have K-line form of technology stays;

3, it analyzed the “unbeatable trends” and “deviation from the rate” on-line indicators;

4, is analyzed weekly and monthly line of patterns and trends in indicators of invincibility;

5, plan to do a single amount is too large;

6, is to set a stop price;

7, is planned Opening price (in the case of a floating win);

8, is set to win only the price;

9, the next single.

To do a single post:

1. To a stop bit, strictly implement the stop-loss price, regardless of whether the future we’ll see this level was a single right or wrong;

2. Loss after a single open positions and never backhand, change their attitude after the analysis of the market;

3. Floating win Opening after the failure of strict compliance with “make 10,000 yuan is not going, to make the final a time-sharing must take the” remedial principles;

4. When the open positions with the enormous profits after the stock market to do immediately to prevent a single, calm state of mind after the joy of the market analysis.

Foreign agent, the preferred MG. Welcome foreign fans to discuss ~
Personal communication QQ: 1400920812
QQ Exchange Group: 45.40918 million
Free Hotline :400-699-0212

(1) calculated as follows:

VR = N days increased the total daily trading / N days, the total decline in daily trading.

N – set parameters, usually 26 days.

(2) the use of Law:

(a) to set the size of the sale of VR time: In the 40-70 can be multi-cast; in 80-150 when the small fluctuations, you can position; and 160-350 open positions when away from the city; drop when more than 350.

(b) when the trading volume from the shrinking to enlarge, while the VR upward from low-value increases when it is time to buy.

(c) low, when the entire disk, VR increased, could be considered to buy.

(d) VR in the security zone, foreign exchange leather, they can not throw position.

(e) VR in the profit zone, the exchange rate rise, VR is increasing, can be a high shot.

(f) VR at 160-180 after the trading volume will decline, after the easy access to reach the peak period of decline; on the contrary, VR, after less than 40-60, it is easy to bottom bounce.