Yield curve is to show a group of currency and credit risks are the same, but the duration of the different bonds or other financial instruments yield charts. The vertical axis represents the rate of return, the horizontal axis is the time to maturity.
Yield curve there are many, such as government bonds, the benchmark yield curve, deposit yield curve, interest rate swaps and credit yield curve yield curve (credit curves) and so on. Benchmark yield curve and other securities on the market of reference, the securities must be consistent with liquidity, size, price, availability, velocity and other characteristics of the standard.
Yield curve is not static, at any time can happen fast changes. For example, the central bank officials in a few words can lead to higher inflation expectations, so that long-term bond prices have fallen faster than short-term bonds.
Under normal circumstances, the yield curve rising from left to right, because the longer term rate of return would be higher to reflect the investment risks and increase with the lengthening period of the case. Of such yield curve, if it increases in long-term yields higher than short-term rate of return, yield curve becomes steeper.
Inversion of the yield curve is a decline from left to right, reflecting the short-term rate of return higher than the long-term rate of return anomalies. This may be because investors expect the inflation rate to decline in the long run, or the supply of bonds will be substantially reduced, both the expected rate of return will be down.
On interest rates, financial commentators often said that the interest rate path, or down, as if every move in interest rates are the same. In fact, if a different year bonds, the interest rate trend will be different, a long period of interest rate and short term interest rate movements can be split. The most important thing is the overall yield curve shape and curve on the economy or market trends in the future inspiration.
Would like to find out interest rates from the yield curve traces of the investors and companies are closely observe the shape of the curve. Yield curve is based, is that you buy in the near future, medium and long-term treasury bonds, the proceeds after the rate of return. Curves allows you to get back in accordance with holders of bonds until the principal amount of the year, to compare bond yields.
The shape of yield curve is based on the straight shaft connected to a different point of Treasury bond yields as well as in the horizontal axis of the bond formed-year point. Now you can see above a bit steep yield curve, in which year bonds yield more than three-month short-term treasury bonds is nearly. The difference between these two types of bonds are usually about, if the difference between the percentage of higher than this, that said the economy is expected to improve in the future.
Steep yield curve in general appeared in pace with the economic recession of the early stage of economic expansion. At this point, economic stagnation and short-term interest rates have been suppressed, but the One once to re-establish the growth of economic activity the demand for capital, and the fear of inflation, interest rates generally began to rise.
Traditionally, the inverted curve, said the economy would soon slow down. Financial institutions such as banks typically borrow short-term interest rates and will be a long-term lending money. Generally speaking, when the long-term rates higher than short-term interest rates and relatively high between the two, in this case, the bank’s loans are usually low. In general, the lower the amount of corporate lending will lead to credit crunch, business is slow, and economic decline.
This is a typical view. The latest case is different, and perhaps more complex than ever. Recent decline in U.S. Treasury long-term bonds issued, and in the past few years, when the first time in budget surpluses over the years in Washington to begin paying some of the long-term bonds have not been paid.
Reduce the long-term bond issuance prompted investors to buy longer-term bonds, and thus raised the long-term bond prices and lowered its rate of return, the question arose inverted curve. Bond prices and yields the opposite direction. However, the year the Federal Reserve interest rate cut carried out radical measures in the case of short-term rates down, return to the traditional increase in yield curve shape.
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